Tropical Update

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 050313
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The low pressure area that we've been watching last week struggled to develop and is barely showing any signs of improvement. This system is currently west of Guam and is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Meanwhile, another low pressure area was spotted--this time in South China Sea. A weak low-level circulation has been observed on Invest 93W. However, just like the other LPA, we're not expecting this disturbance to develop into a cyclone.

As for the Philippines, the tail-end of the cold front will bring light rains and cloudy skies across parts of Northern Luzon. Rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with occasional chances of rain showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Tropical Update

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 042813
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Dry weather pattern continues to prevail over much of the Philippines these past two weeks. Dams around the country are starting to note the continuous decrease of their respective water levels. However, officials insist there's nothing to be worried about yet since the supply is still adequate for the immediate future.

But while much of the country basks in sunshine and hot temperatures, some computer models are hinting of a possible tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific later this week. The GFS model has been really consistent these past 3 days, showing a weak cyclone forming near the Marianas Islands either by Friday or by Saturday. So far, only the NAVGEM (former NOGAPS) model and to a certain extent, the CMC model , support this solution which means it's not set in stone just yet. Nevertheless, we'll continue to closely monitor the latest computer model solutions as well as the situation in the Western Pacific for any hints of cyclone formation.

IR Image from NRLMRY

For now, generally clear skies will continue to prevail over the Philippines. Northern Luzon may experience cloudy conditions with occasional light rains. Some isolated thunderstorms may also pop-up in certain places during the afternoon and early evening hours which is typical occurrence during the summer months.

We'll have another update by Friday (earlier if we figure a cyclone formation is imminent).

Tropical Update

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 041413
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IR Image from NOAA

A low pressure area, named Invest 91W, is bringing heavy rains across the Malay Peninsula. Stations across Thailand and Malaysia are reporting rainfall amounts of anywhere from 50 to as much as 150mm causing flooding in many areas. 91W is not forecast to develop into a cyclone anytime soon. However, it is expected to continue bringing widespread rains across Indochina over the next 48 hours with the possibility of additional 50 to even 100mm of rain. 91W may develop once it reaches the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, the ITCZ continues to flare up near the tropics. Rain showers may affect parts of Micronesia and even Mindanao in the Philippines in the coming days. Luzon and Visayas, on the other hand, will continue to have warm weather with occasional thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Finally, a frontal boundary is develop in the Ryukyu Islands and is already causing light rains around Okinawa. This front will continue to move eastward and will be extending to the southwest. It may trigger some light rains across Taiwan and even parts of Northern Luzon in the next 2 days.

No Tropical Cyclones expected this week.

Tropical Update

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 040713
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A powerful mid-latitude spring storm moved across Japan today. This intense low pressure brought widespread heavy rains in the country causing flooding and disrupting travel and businesses. The associated cold-front with this storm has moved far to the south and is actually bringing some light rains across Northern Luzon. The cloudiness in the area has also kept the temperatures much cooler compared to the rest of the archipelago.

IR Image from NOAA

Laoag City and nearby areas have been stuck at around 28C to 30C for much of the day along with light rains. Temperatures here are much cooler compared to the mid and upper 30s being experienced in other parts of the country. In fact,parts of Luzon recorded 37C a few days ago becoming the hottest temperature so far this year.

This hot weather pattern will continue through the next few weeks so expect more temperature readings like this. There may be some isolated rains and thunderstorms from time to time especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. The ITCZ may also bring some light rains across Mindanao over the next few days.

As always, keep in mind that with the humid conditions in the country, the heat index (how hot it feels to the skin) will be higher than the indicated temperature (for example, a 35-degree temp reading may actually feel as hot as 38C to your skin!). Be hydrated and drink plenty of water, as much as possible avoid staying under the sun in the middle of the day, and wear light and comfortable clothing.

Tropical Update

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 040113
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To pave way for the upcoming Typhoon Season, we are temporarily suspending our 3-Day Weather Forecasts, just as we have done in the years past. We will still give occasional updates, however, when there is no tropical cyclone present.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Right now, the ITCZ along with the remnants of Invest 90W are bringing widespread rains across Mindanao. Some of these rains can be moderate to heavy and can bring as much as 100mm of rain in some parts so landslides and flooding are possible. Meanwhile, the northern half of the country will have partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures which could soar into the mid and upper 30s. Some light rains are also possible for Northern Luzon over the next two days due to a stationary front.